Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts

A collection of 417 energy scenarios was assembled and harmonized to compare what they said about nuclear, fossil and renewable energy thirty years from their publication. Based on data analysis, we divide the recent history of the energy forecasting in three periods. The first is defined by a decline in nuclear optimism, approximately until 1990. The second by a stability of forecasts, approximately until 2005. The third by a rise in the forecasted share of renewable energy sources. We also find that forecasts tend to cohere, that is they have a low dispersion within periods compared to the change across periods

Extending the IceCube search for neutrino point sources in the Northern sky with additional years of data

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is a one-cubic-kilometer-sized neutrino telescope deployed deep in the Antarctic ice at the South Pole. One of IceCube's major goals is finding the origins of astrophysical high-energy neutrinos. In 2022, IceCube identified the strongest point-like neutrino source so far, the active galaxy NGC 1068. Analyzing 9 years of muon-neutrino data from the Northern Sky recorded between 2011 and 2020, the emission from NGC 1068 is significant at 4.2$\,\sigma$. We present a planned extension to this search with additional years of data. One of these years includes data from 2010 when IceCube was only partially constructed. We discuss the improvement in sensitivity and discovery potential for neutrino point sources across the Northern sky. We show that by building on the established analysis techniques, previous observations could be improved, not only for NGC 1068 but for all possible sources in the Northern sky.Comment: Presented at the 38th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2023). See arXiv:2307.13047 for all IceCube contribution

Healthy or Environmentally Friendly? Meat Consumption Practices of Green Consumers in Vietnam and Switzerland

High meat consumption is a phenomenon in both developed countries such as Switzerland and emerging countries such as Vietnam. This high meat consumption is associated with environmental, social, and health consequences. Drawing upon social practice theory, this study explores the influence of social practices on the meat consumption of green consumers, as a growing number of consumers in both countries want to eat healthy and sustainably but still have different needs and face different barriers. Data were collected from online group discussions. For green consumers, meat consumption was found to convey certain meanings and depends, among other things, on the information available. The consumption decision in Vietnam is strongly influenced by health and food safety, whereas negative environmental consequences are important in Switzerland. Social and cultural aspects also play a major part in the decision to eat or abstain from meat in both countries. Meat is a non-negotiable part of any special occasion meal in Vietnam and is often eaten at social gatherings in Switzerland. We argue that meat consumption is linked to social status in both countries, but family influence is stronger in Vietnam than in Switzerland. Interventions, such as policy measures that are adapted to regional, cultural, and consumer group specificities and focus on social practices rather than individual behavior, are a promising means to promote meat reduction

Genetic variants of MICB and PLCE1 and associations with the laboratory features of dengue

Background: A previous genome-wide association study identified 2 susceptibility loci for severe dengue at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360 and further work showed these mutations to be also associated with less severe clinical presentations. The aim of this study was to determine if these specific loci were associated with laboratory features of dengue that correlate with clinical severity with the aim of elucidating the functional basis of these genetic variants. Methods: This was a case-only analysis of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients obtained from 2 prospective cohort studies and 1 randomised clinical trial in Vietnam (Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN03147572. Registered 24th July 2012). 2742 dengue cases were successfully genotyped at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360. Laboratory variables were compared between genotypes and stratified by DENV serotype. Results: The analysis showed no association between MICB and PLCE1 genotype and early viraemia level, platelet nadir, white cell count nadir, or maximum haematocrit in both overall analysis and in analysis stratified by serotype. Discussion: The lack of an association between genotype and viremia level may reflect the sampling procedures within the included studies. The study findings mean that the functional basis of these mutations remains unclear. Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN03147572. Registered 24th July 2012

The transfer and decay of maternal antibody against Shigella sonnei in a longitudinal cohort of Vietnamese infants.

BACKGROUND: Shigella sonnei is an emergent and major diarrheal pathogen for which there is currently no vaccine. We aimed to quantify duration of maternal antibody against S. sonnei and investigate transplacental IgG transfer in a birth cohort in southern Vietnam. METHODS AND RESULTS: Over 500-paired maternal/infant plasma samples were evaluated for presence of anti-S. sonnei-O IgG and IgM. Longitudinal plasma samples allowed for the estimation of the median half-life of maternal anti-S. sonnei-O IgG, which was 43 days (95% confidence interval: 41-45 days). Additionally, half of infants lacked a detectable titer by 19 weeks of age. Lower cord titers were associated with greater increases in S. sonnei IgG over the first year of life, and the incidence of S. sonnei seroconversion was estimated to be 4/100 infant years. Maternal IgG titer, the ratio of antibody transfer, the season of birth and gestational age were significantly associated with cord titer. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal anti-S. sonnei-O IgG is efficiently transferred across the placenta and anti-S. sonnei-O maternal IgG declines rapidly after birth and is undetectable after 5 months in the majority of children. Preterm neonates and children born to mothers with low IgG titers have lower cord titers and therefore may be at greater risk of seroconversion in infancy

Host Transcription Profile in Nasal Epithelium and Whole Blood of Hospitalized Children Under 2 Years of Age With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Most insights into the cascade of immune events after acute respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection have been obtained from animal experiments or in vitro models. METHODS: In this study, we investigated host gene expression profiles in nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs and whole blood samples during natural RSV and rhinovirus (hRV) infection (acute versus early recovery phase) in 83 hospitalized patients <2 years old with lower respiratory tract infections. RESULTS: Respiratory syncytial virus infection induced strong and persistent innate immune responses including interferon signaling and pathways related to chemokine/cytokine signaling in both compartments. Interferon-α/β, NOTCH1 signaling pathways and potential biomarkers HIST1H4E, IL7R, ISG15 in NP samples, or BCL6, HIST2H2AC, CCNA1 in blood are leading pathways and hub genes that were associated with both RSV load and severity. The observed RSV-induced gene expression patterns did not differ significantly in NP swab and blood specimens. In contrast, hRV infection did not as strongly induce expression of innate immunity pathways, and significant differences were observed between NP swab and blood specimens. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that RSV induced strong and persistent innate immune responses and that RSV severity may be related to development of T follicular helper cells and antiviral inflammatory sequelae derived from high activation of BCL6

Oseltamivir Is Adequately Absorbed Following Nasogastric Administration to Adult Patients with Severe H5N1 Influenza

In the absence of a parenteral drug, oral oseltamivir is currently recommended by the WHO for treating H5N1 influenza. Whether oseltamivir absorption is adequate in severe influenza is unknown. We measured the steady state, plasma concentrations of nasogastrically administered oseltamivir 150 mg bid and its active metabolite, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), in three, mechanically ventilated patients with severe H5N1 (male, 30 yrs; pregnant female, 22 yrs) and severe H3N2 (female, 76 yrs). Treatments were started 6, 7 and 8 days after illness onset, respectively. Both females were sampled while on continuous venovenous haemofiltration. Admission and follow up specimens (trachea, nose, throat, rectum, blood) were tested for RNA viral load by reverse transcriptase PCR. In vitro virus susceptibility to OC was measured by a neuraminidase inhibition assay. Admission creatinine clearances were 66 (male, H5N1), 82 (female, H5N1) and 6 (H3N2) ml/min. Corresponding AUC0–12 values (5932, 10,951 and 34,670 ng.h/ml) and trough OC concentrations (376, 575 and 2730 ng/ml) were higher than previously reported in healthy volunteers; the latter exceeded 545 to 3956 fold the H5N1 IC50 (0.69 ng/ml) isolated from the H5N1 infected female. Two patients with follow-up respiratory specimens cleared their viruses after 5 (H5N1 male) and 5 (H3N2 female) days of oseltamivir. Both female patients died of respiratory failure; the male survived. 150 mg bid of oseltamivir was well absorbed and converted extensively to OC. Virus was cleared in two patients but two patients died, suggesting viral efficacy but poor clinical efficacy

Metformin Prevents Nigrostriatal Dopamine Degeneration Independent of AMPK Activation in Dopamine Neurons

Metformin is a widely prescribed drug used to treat type-2 diabetes, although recent studies show it has wide ranging effects to treat other diseases. Animal and retrospective human studies indicate that Metformin treatment is neuroprotective in Parkinson’s Disease (PD), although the neuroprotective mechanism is unknown, numerous studies suggest the beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis may be through AMPK activation. In this study we tested whether or not AMPK activation in dopamine neurons was required for the neuroprotective effects of Metformin in PD. We generated transgenic mice in which AMPK activity in dopamine neurons was ablated by removing AMPK beta 1 and beta 2 subunits from dopamine transporter expressing neurons. These AMPK WT and KO mice were then chronically exposed to Metformin in the drinking water then exposed to MPTP, the mouse model of PD. Chronic Metformin treatment significantly attenuated the MPTP-induced loss of Tyrosine Hydroxylase (TH) neuronal number and volume and TH protein concentration in the nigrostriatal pathway. Additionally, Metformin treatment prevented the MPTP-induced elevation of the DOPAC:DA ratio regardless of genotype. Metformin also prevented MPTP induced gliosis in the Substantia Nigra. These neuroprotective actions were independent of genotype and occurred in both AMPK WT and AMPK KO mice. Overall, our studies suggest that Metformin’s neuroprotective effects are not due to AMPK activation in dopaminergic neurons and that more research is required to determine how metformin acts to restrict the development of PD